The state of play
JEF United Chiba sit 20th with four points from eight matches, built on one win, one draw and six defeats. Their goal difference of -11 is the worst of the two sides by six goals.
V-Varen Nagasaki are 15th with eight points, from two wins, two draws and four defeats. That is a four-point cushion, though neither club has much room to feel comfortable.
The recent sequences point the same way. Chiba's last five league results read loss, draw, win, loss, loss. Nagasaki's read draw, win, loss, draw, loss. Over their last 10 matches Chiba have taken 0.5 points per match, Nagasaki 1.1.
Head to head
The two clubs have met twice in the sets of results available, and JEF won both. They took a 1-0 home win in September 2012 and a 2-1 win in September 2014, the second of them away at Nagasaki. Those meetings averaged two goals each, but they are a long way back and say little about the current sides.
The numbers behind it
Chiba have scored seven goals and created 7.5 expected goals, so their attack is close to what the chances warrant. The problem is at the other end: 18 conceded against 14.5 expected, meaning they have given up more than the quality of chances alone would suggest.
Nagasaki have scored 10 from 8.5 expected, and conceded 15 from 12.8. Both numbers run a little hotter than the underlying chances, and their expected goals against is still the heavier side of the ledger.
Across the last 10 matches Chiba have scored eight and conceded 20, with one win. Nagasaki have scored 14 and conceded 19, with three wins and five defeats.
Our view
The betting market implies about 35% for a Chiba win, 28% for a draw and 37% for a Nagasaki win. Our model leans a little further towards the visitors at 40%, with Chiba on 33% and the draw on 27%.
The gap is small and rests on the same pattern: Nagasaki have the better points return and the smaller goal-difference deficit, though both are conceding more than their chances imply. Both teams scoring is priced at about 55% by the market and 56% by the model, and over 2.5 goals sits at about 50% and 51%. These are estimates, not predictions, and football is high-variance.
Market and model
Betting market · consensus of 15 bookmakersGiovePicks model
- Home win35% market33% model2.89 Fair odds implied by the market
- Draw28% market27% model3.57 Fair odds implied by the market
- Away win37% market40% model2.67 Fair odds implied by the market
- Over 2.5 goals50% market51% model2.01 Fair odds implied by the market
- Under 2.5 goals50% market49% model1.99 Fair odds implied by the market
Estimates built from public data, not advice or a tip. We do not take bets or recommend any operator. Football is high-variance and no estimate is a guarantee. 18+ only.