Avispa Fukuoka, one win in eight, host Fagiano Okayama nine points clear

The state of play

Avispa Fukuoka are 18th in the J1 League with four points from eight matches. They have one win, one draw and six defeats, and their last five league results read loss, loss, draw, loss, loss.

Fagiano Okayama are 9th on 13 points, nine more than their hosts. They have won four, drawn one and lost three, and their last five league results read loss, win, win, win, loss: a good spell, but not a run that is still going.

Over the last 10 games in all competitions, Avispa have taken 0.5 points per match from one win, two draws and seven defeats. Fagiano have taken 1.9 from six wins, one draw and three defeats.

Head to head

The two sides have met five times, and Avispa have the edge: two wins to Fagiano's one, with two draws. The most recent meeting went to Fagiano, who won 2-0 at home.

Before that came a 1-1 draw, and the two clubs also shared a 1-1 draw in April 2025. Those five games have averaged 2.4 goals, so low-scoring contests are the pattern.

The numbers behind it

Avispa have scored nine and conceded 12, a goal difference of -3. Their expected goals tell a similar story: 10.3 created and 13.5 allowed, so the defensive problem is no fluke of finishing.

Fagiano have scored 11 and conceded 10, a goal difference of +1. Their expected figures are 9.3 for and 7.4 against, which means they have conceded about 2.6 more than the chances against them suggest.

Across the last 10 matches Fagiano have scored 15 and let in 10. Avispa have scored nine and let in 13.

Our view

The betting market implies about 39% for a Fagiano win, 31% for a draw and 30% for an Avispa win. Our model leans higher on the visitors at 43%, with 29% for a draw and 29% for Avispa.

The four-point gap on Fagiano is small. It fits the visitors' recent record of 1.9 points per match against 0.5, but it does not account for Avispa's edge in the meetings between these sides. On goals, the market implies about 41% for three or more, and our model says 46%. These are estimates, and football is high-variance.