Numbers
- Market prob.
- 44%
- Fair odds
- 2.29
- Bookmaker margin
- 6.3%
- Bookmakers
- 15
Basketball · 13 October 2026
Basketball double · odds 2.95
Euroleague home double: Valencia's strong home form against the champions at 2.15, with Fenerbahçe at home to an inconsistent Žalgiris.
What to play
- Odds
- 2.95
- Selections
- 2
Numbers
- Market prob.
- 69%
- Fair odds
- 1.44
- Bookmaker margin
- 5.0%
- Bookmakers
- 15
Why this pick
Valencia are priced at only 43.6% at home even though they are 9-1 in their last ten with a +7.4 average margin and 9-1 in recent home games. The Elo gap is small (1659 against 1672), and Valencia come in on 7 rest days to Olympiacos' 4, which the price looks to underrate.
The numbers behind it
- Valencia Basket to win: bookmaker consensus 44% (fair odds 2.29, offered 2.15) · analyst estimate 49% · 15 bookmakers · analyst-1.0.0
- Price: a dearer-than-usual price. At 2.15 the bookmaker keeps about 6.3% of the stake on this leg.
- Combined probability on the market's numbers: 30%
- Model analyst-1.0.0 · data quality high
Read the full analysis
The main leg is Valencia at home to Olympiacos. The market gives Valencia 43.6%, but on our ratings the two sides are very close (1659 against 1672). Valencia also bring the better home record: 9-1 in recent home games and 9-1 over their last ten. Home court and the rest gap (7 days against 4) should push Valencia close to a coin flip, so we rate them at 49%.
The news backs up the home angle. According to Blog de Basket, Valencia are trying to keep their perfect record against Olympiacos, and Eurohoops writes about what Nikola Mirotic's arrival means for their season. Olympiacos are still a serious side, though: 9-1 with a +14.8 average margin over their last ten. That is the biggest risk to the slip.
The second leg is Fenerbahçe at home to Žalgiris. Fenerbahçe are 8-2 in recent home games, while Žalgiris are 4-6 away and close to level overall, with a -0.2 average margin. The 69.4% market looks a little low against those figures, and short-priced home favourites have been our archive's most reliable group.
One thing to watch is Šarūnas Jasikevičius criticising a brutal schedule, according to BasketNews.com, so fatigue or rotation could play a part. Fenerbahçe still have 4 rest days to Žalgiris' 3.
For the slip to land, Valencia need to turn their home form into a win over the champions, and Fenerbahçe need to hold serve at home. The combined median odds fall inside the preferred band.
Prediction, odds, and model version remain attached to the original publication. Live updates never alter the suggestion.