Numbers
- Market prob.
- 47%
- Fair odds
- 2.12
- Bookmaker margin
- 6.6%
- Bookmakers
- 14
Ice hockey · 8 October 2026
Ice hockey single · odds 1.98
A single on Skellefteå to beat Färjestad in regulation: the strongest home form on the board, priced below 50%.
What to play
- Odds
- 1.98
- Selections
- 1
Why this pick
Skellefteå are 8-2-0 in recent home games and 6-3-1 over their last ten, with a +1.9 average margin and 3.9 goals per game. Their elo of 1653 is well above Färjestad's 1552, before home advantage. The market gives them only 47.2% at a median of 1.98.
The numbers behind it
- Skellefteå AIK to win in regulation: bookmaker consensus 47% (fair odds 2.12, offered 1.98) · analyst estimate 52% · 14 bookmakers · analyst-1.0.0
- Price: a dearer-than-usual price. At 1.98 the bookmaker keeps about 6.6% of the stake on this leg.
- Combined probability on the market's numbers: 47%
- Model analyst-1.0.0 · data quality high
Read the full analysis
Today's slip is one leg. Skellefteå to win in regulation at a median of 1.98 reaches the 1.90 target by itself. The market rates them at 47.2%, and we think that is a few points too low.
Skellefteå have lost none of their last ten home games (8-2-0) and are 6-3-1 overall. They average 3.9 goals for and 2.0 against, a +1.9 margin. Their elo of 1653 is about 100 points above Färjestad's 1552, and home advantage adds roughly 65 points on top of that.
Färjestad are not weak. They are 5-1-4 over ten, 5-3-2 on the road and allow only 2.0 goals a game, so we keep our estimate at 52% and do not go further. The main risk is a draw after 60 minutes, which the market prices at 22.6%. In a tight game, overtime would sink this leg.
We looked at other legs. Fribourg at 1.45 and Luleå at 1.80 showed only thin edges, and we did not want to add one just to build a double. Björklöven's numbers stand out against Brynäs, but the gap from the market is too big to trust without more information. For the slip to land, Skellefteå need to turn their home dominance into a win inside 60 minutes.
Prediction, odds, and model version remain attached to the original publication. Live updates never alter the suggestion.