Football double · odds 3.45

Both legs are on goals rather than results. Of the four teams involved, three have been creating little, and both under prices sit close to even money: 51.7% in Portsmouth v Sheffield United and 49.2% in QPR v Derby.

Sheffield United's attack is the main reason for the Portsmouth leg. They average 0.59 xG and 8.67 shots per game over their last six and 0.76 xG away, while Portsmouth have managed 1 big chance per game recently. The official line-ups show changes on both sides. Portsmouth leave out Tyrese Shade, Daniel Bielica and Rocco Robert Shein, and the Portsmouth News reports a surprise debut. Sheffield United leave out Rhys Norrington-Davies and Oliver Arblaster. None of this points to more goals. The ten previous meetings averaged 1.9 goals, and the forecast wind of 3 kph will not affect play.

At Loftus Road, Derby average 0.89 xG over their last six and 0.85 away. QPR have drawn four of their last six, scoring 6 and conceding 6. The QPR team sheet leaves out six regulars, including Rumarn Burrell, Kwame Poku and Jake Clarke-Salter, and the BBC reports Tariq Lamptey missing. That points to a weakened home attack.

The main risk is in the Derby leg. Derby have conceded 16.2 xG in nine league games, and with Jacob Widell Zetterström injured, Josh Vickers starts in goal. Recent meetings have also produced a 4-0 and a 2-3. BSD's model expects 1.4 and 1.18 goals and gives over 2.5 a 50.7% chance, so this leg is close to a coin flip. The market has also moved towards QPR, from 53 to 55.9, since it opened.

For the slip to land, both games have to finish with two goals or fewer. In practice that means Sheffield United staying as blunt as their recent numbers, and a weakened QPR side being unable to take advantage of Derby's injury-hit defence.