Numbers
- Market prob.
- 80%
- Fair odds
- 1.25
- Bookmaker margin
- 5.1%
- Bookmakers
- 14
Basketball · 9 October 2026
Basketball double · odds 2.45
A Euroleague double: Olympiacos at home to a struggling Efes, plus Beşiktaş as the in-form side in a game the market slightly prices against them in Vitoria.
What to play
- Odds
- 2.45
- Selections
- 2
Numbers
- Market prob.
- 46%
- Fair odds
- 2.18
- Bookmaker margin
- 4.9%
- Bookmakers
- 15
Why this pick
Olympiacos are 9-1 over their last ten with a +12.9 average margin and 10-0 in recent home games, while Efes are 3-7 and 2-8 away. An Elo of 1671 against 1432, plus home court, puts their chance a little above the 80.3% market.
The numbers behind it
- Olympiacos BC to win: bookmaker consensus 80% (fair odds 1.25, offered 1.18) · analyst estimate 84% · 14 bookmakers · analyst-1.0.0
- Price: a dearer-than-usual price. At 1.18 the bookmaker keeps about 5.1% of the stake on this leg.
- Combined probability on the market's numbers: 37%
- Model analyst-1.0.0 · data quality high
Read the full analysis
Both legs come from tonight's Euroleague games, and in each one our numbers rate the pick a bit higher than the market does. Together the median odds come to about 2.44, which sits within our preferred band.
Olympiacos are at a short price for good reason. They come in 9-1 with a +12.9 average margin and have won all ten recent home games. Anadolu Efes are 3-7 and 2-8 on the road. With Elo at 1671 against 1432 and home court on top, we put Olympiacos a few points above the 80.3% market price.
The Baskonia game is where we see more value. The market makes Baskonia favourites at 54.1%, but Beşiktaş have the better rating (1552 vs 1489) and much better form: 6-4 with a +6.7 margin, while Baskonia are 4-6 at -4.6 and allow 96.9 points a game. Baskonia's home record of 6-4 is solid, though not strong enough to make them clear favourites. We see this as close to a coin flip, which makes the 2.07 on Beşiktaş worth taking.
The main risk is the Beşiktaş leg. Baskonia score 92.3 a game, so a fast, high-scoring game could favour the home side, and Beşiktaş are only 5-5 away. We passed on Jena at 5.25: their Elo gives some support, but a 1-9 away record and a price that is a long shot put us off.
For the slip to win, Olympiacos need to keep their home run going and Beşiktaş need to bring their recent form on the road and beat a Baskonia defence that has been leaking points.
Prediction, odds, and model version remain attached to the original publication. Live updates never alter the suggestion.