Basketball single · odds 3.00

The slip is one leg: Bayern München to win at Anadolu Efes, at a median price of 3.00. The market gives Bayern 31.8%, and we rate them at about 40%.

The numbers favour Bayern. Our Elo rating has them on 1587 and Efes on 1432, a gap that home advantage of about 65 points does not close. Over their last ten games Bayern are 7-3, scoring 83.9 and allowing 76.2 for a +7.7 average margin, and they are 6-4 away. Efes are 3-7 over the same stretch, scoring just 77.1 and allowing 84.0 for a -6.9 margin. Bayern also come in on seven days' rest against Efes' four.

Our data has no official line-ups for this game yet, so nothing there confirms or changes the picture. The fresh news leans the same way. A Eurohoops headline from about three hours ago says Mike James is out for months and asks how Efes should be priced without him. We read these prices once a night, so that news may not be fully in the 3.00 yet. Bayern's own headlines are about other things and show no injury worries.

The other fixtures did not offer a better leg. Napoli and Le Mans are short prices that don't stand out on our numbers, and Tortona at 6.50 is the kind of long shot that has done worst in our archive.

The main risk is that the market is right about something our numbers miss. Efes are a strong home side in the Euroleague, and early-season ratings and a ten-game sample can mislead. For the slip to land, Bayern need to bring their recent defence and margin to Istanbul and handle Efes' home crowd. If James is really out, Efes' already weak attack has fewer ways to keep pace.