Football single · odds 1.80

The obvious lean was 'both teams not to score' in Universitatea Craiova v Getafe, and the official line-ups support it. Getafe have left out Ivan Azón and Ramón Terrats, and the market has moved away from them since opening. The problem is the price, which has dropped to 1.72. That puts it below the slip's band, and a double would mean paying the bookmaker margin twice on a leg that is already short. So the slip moves to a different game.

Egnatia v Midtjylland's 'both teams to score' sits at 1.80, with the market at 51.7%. Midtjylland's matches have had both sides scoring in 5 of their last 6 and in 4 of their last 5 away games. Their xG against is about 1.5 per match recently and 1.2 away, so they do give chances up. Egnatia have scored 12 goals in their last 6 games and 17 in their last 6 at home.

The absence list matters here. Midtjylland are without four regulars: Elías Ólafsson, Martin Erlić, Magnus Jensen and Kjell Wätjen. That makes a clean sheet harder to keep. BSD's model expects about 1.6 goals for each side and gives 52.3% for both to score, a little above the market. It agrees with the direction but is not independent proof.

The confirmed line-ups put no regulars on the left-out list for either side. Midtjylland start Cho, Iheanacho and Etim up front, so their attack is at full strength.

Main risks: Egnatia have no xG data in the dossier, so their scoring rests on goals alone. According to Reuters, the match has been moved out of Tirana because of civil unrest, which could weaken Egnatia's home edge. The slip needs Egnatia to score at least once and Midtjylland to find the net as they usually do.