Numbers
- Market prob.
- 62%
- Fair odds
- 1.61
- Bookmaker margin
- 5.7%
- Bookmakers
- 15
Basketball · 11 October 2026
Basketball double · odds 3.02
A double at about 3.02 combined: UCAM Murcia at home and Tezenis Verona away at Scafati, two prices where our ratings point the same way as recent form and the market hasn't fully caught up.
What to play
- Odds
- 3.02
- Selections
- 2
Numbers
- Market prob.
- 47%
- Fair odds
- 2.11
- Bookmaker margin
- 5.5%
- Bookmakers
- 14
Why this pick
UCAM Murcia are priced at 62% but rate 1595 on our Elo against 1519 for La Laguna Tenerife, before home advantage. Murcia are 8-2 in recent home games, while Tenerife are 4-6 over their last ten with an average margin of -7.3.
The numbers behind it
- UCAM Murcia to win: bookmaker consensus 62% (fair odds 1.61, offered 1.52) · analyst estimate 67% · 15 bookmakers · analyst-1.0.0
- Price: a dearer-than-usual price. At 1.52 the bookmaker keeps about 5.7% of the stake on this leg.
- Combined probability on the market's numbers: 29%
- Model analyst-1.0.0 · data quality high
Read the full analysis
This slip combines two away-from-the-headlines Elo gaps. In both games our rating sees a clear edge that the market prices only partly. Together, the median odds of 1.52 and 1.99 come to about 3.02, which sits within the preferred band.
UCAM Murcia host La Laguna Tenerife at a 62% market price. Murcia lead on Elo (1595 against 1519) and have gone 8-2 in recent home games. Tenerife come in at 4-6 with a -7.3 average margin and score just 83.9 points per game. Both sides are rested, so fatigue doesn't explain the price. We rate Murcia a few points above the market.
In Scafati, the market treats Givova Scafati against Tezenis Verona as close to a coin flip, with Verona at 47.5%. Scafati have lost all of their last ten, by an average of 14.4 points, and are 1-9 at home. Verona have the much stronger rating at 1501 against 1333. We stay within a few points of the market here, because the main risk is how little recent data we have on Verona: their form covers only two games and one away game, and early-season rosters can change things that past results don't capture.
We skipped several short home favourites that look overpriced against our ratings, including Fraport Skyliners Frankfurt, Surne Bilbao Basket and Kosner Baskonia. We also left out long shots such as Treviso and Manresa. For the slip to land, Murcia need to carry their home form into this game and Verona need to win on the road against a side that hasn't won in ten games.
Prediction, odds, and model version remain attached to the original publication. Live updates never alter the suggestion.