Numbers
- Market prob.
- 53%
- Fair odds
- 1.88
- Bookmaker margin
- 5.1%
- Bookmakers
- 15
Basketball · 8 October 2026
Basketball double · odds 2.17
Valencia and Real Madrid home double at about 2.17. Valencia's 53.3% price looks too low for a side that is 9-1 at home with the much higher Elo.
What to play
- Odds
- 2.17
- Selections
- 2
Numbers
- Market prob.
- 78%
- Fair odds
- 1.28
- Bookmaker margin
- 4.5%
- Bookmakers
- 15
Why this pick
The market rates Valencia at only 53.3% (median odds 1.78), yet they are 9-1 over their last ten with a +7.4 average margin and 9-1 at home, with an Elo of 1663 against Hapoel's 1564. Hapoel are 4-6 in their last ten (-4.0 margin) and 3-7 on the road.
The numbers behind it
- Valencia Basket to win: bookmaker consensus 53% (fair odds 1.88, offered 1.78) · analyst estimate 61% · 15 bookmakers · analyst-1.0.0
- Price: a dearer-than-usual price. At 1.78 the bookmaker keeps about 5.1% of the stake on this leg.
- Combined probability on the market's numbers: 42%
- Model analyst-1.0.0 · data quality high
Read the full analysis
The main leg is Valencia at home to Hapoel Tel-Aviv. The market has this close to a coin flip at 53.3%, but the numbers lean clearly one way. Valencia are 9-1 in their last ten, 9-1 at home and score 94.6 points per game. Hapoel are 4-6 over the same run and only 3-7 away from home. Both sides have seven days of rest, so fatigue doesn't explain the price. We rate Valencia at 61%, a big but deliberate step above the market.
Real Madrid make the price work. At 78.3% they fit the short-priced home favourite profile that has held up best in our archive. Their 1696 Elo and 8-2 home record put them a little above that price, though the edge is small.
We looked at other legs and left them out. Milano at 2.25 against a Maccabi side that is 3-7 in its last ten also looks underpriced, but pairing it with Valencia would push the slip to about 4.00, above our preferred band. Bayern at 66.7% looks fairly priced on ratings despite their strong form.
The main risk in the Madrid leg is Partizan's form: they are also 8-2 in their last ten with a +5.0 margin and 6-4 away, so Madrid may not have an easy night. For the slip to land, Valencia need to keep up their home form against a weak road team, and Madrid need to win a game where they are clearly favoured.
Prediction, odds, and model version remain attached to the original publication. Live updates never alter the suggestion.