Numbers
- Market prob.
- 72%
- Fair odds
- 1.38
- Bookmaker margin
- 5.3%
- Bookmakers
- 15
Football · 9 October 2026
Football double · odds 1.94
Two home wins: Dortmund against Bremen and Nordsjælland against Odense, both teams in top home form, at combined odds of about 1.94.
What to play
- Odds
- 1.94
- Selections
- 2
Numbers
- Market prob.
- 63%
- Fair odds
- 1.58
- Bookmaker margin
- 6.6%
- Bookmakers
- 16
Why this pick
Dortmund have won all 6 recent matches (17-4) and are WWWDWW at home. Bremen have conceded 16 in their last 6 away games, and their 15 away goals came from only 0.53 xG per match, a rate that is likely to cool. The market gives 72.3% at median odds of 1.31.
The numbers behind it
- Borussia Dortmund to win: bookmaker consensus 72% (fair odds 1.38, offered 1.31) · analyst estimate 76% · 15 bookmakers · analyst-1.0.0
- Price: a dearer-than-usual price. At 1.31 the bookmaker keeps about 5.3% of the stake on this leg.
- Combined probability on the market's numbers: 46%
- Model analyst-1.0.0 · data quality high
Read the full analysis
This double pairs two home sides whose results and chance creation at home both look better than their prices. It just reaches the 1.90 target, at the low end of our preferred band.
Dortmund top the Bundesliga with six straight wins and only 2 goals conceded in four league games. Bremen's away numbers are the weak point: they have given up 16 goals in their last 6 away games, and their scoring there rests on only 0.53 xG per match. BSD's model expects 2.28 goals for Dortmund and 0.96 for Bremen, close to the market's 72.3%. We rate Dortmund a few points higher because of how unbalanced Bremen's away numbers are.
Nordsjælland have been close to perfect at home: six wins, 13-1 on goals, 5.17 big chances per match. Their season xG of 20.7 is well above their 14 goals, which suggests they have been unlucky in front of goal rather than flattered. Odense have one win in their last 6 away games and have conceded 15 across their last six matches.
The main risk is Nordsjælland's recent all-competition form, which reads LLWDLW with 12 goals conceded. Odense also won 4-2 at this ground last November. On the Dortmund side, their recent scoring is above their xG, and Bremen's line-up confidence is only 0.51.
For the slip to land, both home sides have to turn their usual home control into wins. A draw in either match loses the slip.
Prediction, odds, and model version remain attached to the original publication. Live updates never alter the suggestion.