Numbers
- Market prob.
- 51%
- Fair odds
- 1.96
- Bookmaker margin
- 4.7%
- Bookmakers
- 10
Basketball · 16 October 2026
Basketball single · odds 1.86
A single on Kauno Žalgiris -6.5 at 1.86: Efes come to Kaunas on a back-to-back after three straight defeats, and the handicap is still priced close to a coin flip.
What to play
- Odds
- 1.86
- Selections
- 1
Why this pick
Anadolu Efes play on a back-to-back with one rest day. They are 3-7 over their last ten with an average margin of -7, and 2-8 in recent away games. Žalgiris are 7-3 at home and lead on Elo 1516 to 1413, yet the -6.5 line is priced at only 51.1%.
The numbers behind it
- Kauno Žalgiris -6.5: bookmaker consensus 51% (fair odds 1.96, offered 1.86) · analyst estimate 53% · 10 bookmakers · analyst-1.0.0
- Price: an ordinary price. At 1.86 the bookmaker keeps about 4.7% of the stake on this leg.
- Combined probability on the market's numbers: 51%
- Model analyst-1.0.0 · data quality high
Read the full analysis
The slip is one leg: Kauno Žalgiris to cover -6.5 against Anadolu Efes, at median odds of 1.86. The market gives the handicap 51.1%, against 71.4% for a straight Žalgiris win.
The main reason is the schedule. Efes have one rest day and are on a back-to-back. Žalgiris have had two days off. On form, Efes are 3-7 over their last ten with an average margin of -7, and they have won only 2 of their last 10 away games. Žalgiris are 7-3 at home.
The latest news supports the picture rather than changing it. Odakgazetesi reports that Efes lost at home to Bayern for a third straight defeat, and Anadolu Ajansı reports Efes losing in the EuroLeague a day ago, so they travel to Lithuania straight after a loss. The dossier has no official line-ups or listed absences for either side, so no key player is known to be out. The price has moved slightly towards Žalgiris since it opened, from about 50% to 51.1%. That means part of the edge is already in the price, which is why we rate the leg only a couple of points above the market.
The main risk is Žalgiris themselves. They are 4-6 over their last ten with an average margin of -3, so their form is not convincing. Efes's coach Tomas Masiulis also points to their experienced, quality roster (Eurohoops). For the slip to land, Žalgiris need their home edge to show and to pull away as Efes tire, winning by seven or more.
Prediction, odds, and model version remain attached to the original publication. Live updates never alter the suggestion.