Numbers
- Market prob.
- 52%
- Fair odds
- 1.91
- Bookmaker margin
- 3.7%
- Bookmakers
- 6
Football · 11 October 2026
Football double · odds 3.12
A double on low scoring: under 2.5 goals in Cagliari v Juventus and not both teams to score in Palmeiras v Corinthians, combined median odds about 3.11.
What to play
- Odds
- 3.12
- Selections
- 2
Numbers
- Market prob.
- 55%
- Fair odds
- 1.82
- Bookmaker margin
- 6.5%
- Bookmakers
- 17
Why this pick
Cagliari have scored 4 and conceded 3 in their last 6 home games, and they are 5-2 on goals in the league. Juventus have a 7-3 goal record in their last 6 away games and have allowed only 2.3 xG all season. The market gives 52.5% at a median of 1.83.
The numbers behind it
- Under 2.5 goals: bookmaker consensus 52% (fair odds 1.91, offered 1.83) · analyst estimate 58% · 6 bookmakers · analyst-1.0.0
- Price: an ordinary price. At 1.83 the bookmaker keeps about 3.7% of the stake on this leg.
- Combined probability on the market's numbers: 29%
- Model analyst-1.0.0 · data quality high
Read the full analysis
Both legs back defences the prices underrate. Today's best value looks to be in the goals markets rather than the match winners, where most favourites are priced fairly or worse.
Cagliari v Juventus: few goals at both ends. Cagliari have seen only 7 goals in total in their last 6 home games (4 for, 3 against). Juventus have conceded 4 in 5 league games from just 2.3 xG against. BSD's model expects 0.91 goals for Cagliari and the likely score is 0-1. That makes under 2.5 at 52.5% look a few points too low.
Palmeiras v Corinthians: Palmeiras won 5 of their last 6 home games 12-2. Corinthians have lost 5 of their last 6 and average 0.91 xG away. Recent derbies have been tight: three of the last four had at most one goal, and the other ended 0-2. BTTS no at 55% looks slightly too low.
Main risks: Juventus create 1.96 xG per match in recent games, so a 2-1 or 3-0 would sink the first leg. The second fixture is a derby, which makes it less predictable, and Corinthians have created 1.44 xG per match over their last 6. For the slip to land, Cagliari–Juventus needs two goals or fewer, and either Palmeiras keep a clean sheet or the Corinthians defence holds.
Prediction, odds, and model version remain attached to the original publication. Live updates never alter the suggestion.