Numbers
- Market prob.
- 52%
- Fair odds
- 1.91
- Bookmaker margin
- 4.6%
- Bookmakers
- 6
Football · 18 October 2026
Football single · odds 1.82
Under 2.5 goals in Kasımpaşa v Samsunspor at 1.82: Samsunspor's attack has barely worked, and Kasımpaşa's home games have been tight.
What to play
- Odds
- 1.82
- Selections
- 1
Why this pick
Samsunspor have scored 0.5 goals a game over their last six (xG 0.89), and none of their last three away games had three or more goals or saw both sides score. Kasımpaşa's home games run at about 1.16 xG for and 1.06 against. The market puts the under at 52.4%, median odds 1.82.
The numbers behind it
- Under 2.5 goals: bookmaker consensus 52% (fair odds 1.91, offered 1.82) · analyst estimate 56% · 6 bookmakers · analyst-1.0.0
- Price: an ordinary price. At 1.82 the bookmaker keeps about 4.6% of the stake on this leg.
- Combined probability on the market's numbers: 52%
- Model analyst-1.0.0 · data quality high
Read the full analysis
The slip is a single: under 2.5 goals in Kasımpaşa v Samsunspor at median odds of 1.82. The market rates it at 52.4% and we have it slightly higher. Samsunspor sit 17th with 6 goals from 7 league games and 3 goals in their last six matches. Their last three away games had no overs and no game where both sides scored.
Both sides' numbers point the same way. Kasımpaşa create little (0.91 xG a game recently, 1.16 at home) and concede little at home (1.06 xG against, 4 goals against in their last six home games). Samsunspor's xG against away is 1.27, so Kasımpaşa get no easy chances either. Three of the last four meetings stayed under 2.5. The exception was a 3-0 Kasımpaşa win in August.
The official line-ups bring one change. Oskar Øhlenschlaeger was listed as injured but starts for Samsunspor, a small lift for their side. Fatih Kaya, their top scorer with 3 goals, is not in the eleven, and Mohamed Bayo leads the line. Celil Yüksel, a regular, is left out. For Kasımpaşa, Kamil Ahmet Çörekçi is still out and Ayberk Karapo is left out, with Adrian Benedyczak up front.
The main risk is a new coach. Kapsam Haber and Kanal 362 both say this is Nenad Bjelica's first game in charge of Samsunspor, and a new coach can shake a team up. BSD's model expects 1.34 and 1.18 goals for the two sides, and its 47.7% for over 2.5 sits close to the market. So we see only a small edge, not a big gap. One early goal could open the game up.
The other games offered nothing better. Under 2.5 in Udinese v Lecce is priced just below the band at 1.79. PEC Zwolle v Go Ahead Eagles is a derby, and Zwolle are in crisis under an interim coach, which makes it too hard to read. For the slip to land, Kasımpaşa v Samsunspor needs to stay at two goals or fewer.
Prediction, odds, and model version remain attached to the original publication. Live updates never alter the suggestion.