Numbers
- Market prob.
- 49%
- Fair odds
- 2.06
- Bookmaker margin
- 6.7%
- Bookmakers
- 6
Football · 13 October 2026
Football double · odds 3.42
A double on two low-scoring Championship games: under 2.5 goals in both Burnley v Charlton and Wrexham v West Brom, at combined odds of about 3.4.
What to play
- Odds
- 3.42
- Selections
- 2
Numbers
- Market prob.
- 53%
- Fair odds
- 1.89
- Bookmaker margin
- 5.7%
- Bookmakers
- 6
Why this pick
Burnley create just 0.74 xG per home game and have won none of their last 6 at home (DLDDDL), and they are missing regulars Hannibal Mejbri and Jordan Beyer. Charlton have scored 3 goals in their last 6 on 0.91 xG per match, and only 0.48 xG away from home. The market gives under 2.5 just 48.6%.
The numbers behind it
- Under 2.5 goals: bookmaker consensus 49% (fair odds 2.06, offered 1.92) · analyst estimate 54% · 6 bookmakers · analyst-1.0.0
- Price: a dearer-than-usual price. At 1.92 the bookmaker keeps about 6.7% of the stake on this leg.
- Combined probability on the market's numbers: 26%
- Model analyst-1.0.0 · data quality high
Read the full analysis
Tonight's Championship round has two fixtures where the goals prices look too high for what these teams have been creating. Both legs are unders, and both teams in each game have shown very low attacking output in recent weeks.
At Turf Moor, Burnley's home form is draw after draw. They are winless in their last 6 at home, with 0.74 xG per match and 1.4 big chances per game. Two regulars, Mejbri and Beyer, are out. Charlton have scored 3 goals in their last 6 and average 8.83 shots and 0.48 xG on the road. Even so, under 2.5 sits below 50% at 48.6%, and the 1.92 price looks generous.
At the Racecourse, the xG numbers are even lower. Wrexham are at 0.86 per match recently and West Brom at 0.78, or 0.64 away. West Brom have averaged 1.17 big chances in their last 6. Winds of around 28-30 km/h are forecast at both grounds, which could slow the game down a bit more.
The main risks: Burnley just won 4-0 at Watford, according to Sky Sports, which could mean their attack is picking up. The two most recent Wrexham–West Brom meetings were 2-2 and 2-3, an average of 4.5 goals. For the slip to land, we need two cagey, low-chance games, each finishing with two goals or fewer.
Prediction, odds, and model version remain attached to the original publication. Live updates never alter the suggestion.