Numbers
- Market prob.
- 58%
- Fair odds
- 1.73
- Bookmaker margin
- 6.4%
- Bookmakers
- 16
Football · 10 October 2026
Football double · odds 2.14
Getafe's weak away attack and Remo's poor away form make a double on Barcelona–Getafe both teams not to score plus a Vasco da Gama home win, at about 2.14.
What to play
- Odds
- 2.14
- Selections
- 2
Numbers
- Market prob.
- 71%
- Fair odds
- 1.40
- Bookmaker margin
- 5.9%
- Bookmakers
- 14
Why this pick
Getafe have scored 2 goals in their last 6 away games and create only 0.32 xG per match on the road, with 0.8 big chances. The market gives this 57.9%, and that looks a little low for a side producing this little in attack.
The numbers behind it
- Both teams not to score: bookmaker consensus 58% (fair odds 1.73, offered 1.62) · analyst estimate 63% · 16 bookmakers · analyst-1.0.0
- Price: a dearer-than-usual price. At 1.62 the bookmaker keeps about 6.4% of the stake on this leg.
- Combined probability on the market's numbers: 41%
- Model analyst-1.0.0 · data quality high
Read the full analysis
Both legs rest on the same idea: an away attack that has done very little on the road lately. For each one, the dossier numbers point a few points above the market price.
In Barcelona v Getafe, the market and BSD's model both put 'both teams to score: no' near 58%. Getafe's away numbers are among the weakest on today's card: 2 goals in 6 away games, 0.32 xG per match and 7.8 shots. They have also scored only 4 league goals all season. Barcelona have won all 6 recent home games, so the question is not whether they score but whether Getafe do.
In Vasco da Gama v Remo, Vasco's form is strong: WWWWDL overall, 4 wins in their last 6 at home and 2.02 home xG per match. Remo sit 19th, have lost five of their last six and have no away win in 6, creating 0.61 xG per away match. This is a short-priced home favourite, a profile our price archive suggests has held up well.
Main risks: Barcelona have conceded 6 goals in their last 6 home games, so one Getafe goal would sink the first leg. Vasco's season goals against (42) are high, though their expected goals against (29.2) are much lower. The slip needs Getafe to be kept off the scoresheet and Vasco to turn their home advantage into a win.
Prediction, odds, and model version remain attached to the original publication. Live updates never alter the suggestion.