The state of play
Matchday nine pairs two sides separated by a single place. Excelsior are ninth on 11 points from eight games, with three wins, two draws and three defeats. Heerenveen are tenth on nine points, with two wins, three draws and three defeats.
Neither side arrives with momentum. Heerenveen's last five league results are two defeats, two draws and one win. Excelsior's last five read the same way: two defeats, two draws and one win. The difference lies in the goals. Excelsior have scored 16 and conceded 14, a goal difference of +2. Heerenveen have scored 11 and conceded 11, which leaves them level at zero.
No absences are listed for either side, so both should have their usual options to choose from.
Head to head
Heerenveen have the better of the history. Across 26 meetings they have won 15, Excelsior have won eight and three have ended level. Those games average 3.12 goals, so this fixture has tended to produce goals.
The recent meetings favour Heerenveen as well. They won 2-1 away at Excelsior on 7 March 2026 and 2-1 at home on 4 October 2025. Before that came a 3-0 win for Excelsior at home in January 2024, a 3-0 win for Excelsior in Heerenveen in September 2023 and a goalless draw in May 2023.
The numbers behind it
Over the last 10 matches Excelsior have taken 1.7 points per match, with five wins, two draws and three defeats. They have scored 26 and conceded 18 in that time. Heerenveen have taken 1.3 points per match from three wins, four draws and three defeats, scoring 18 and conceding 17.
The expected-goals figures this season are close. Excelsior have created 11.5 xG and allowed 12.5 over eight games. Heerenveen have created 10.5 and allowed 11.3. Excelsior have scored 16 against 11.5 xG, so they have outscored what their chances suggested. Heerenveen's 11 goals are close to their 10.5 xG, a more stable return.
At the other end, Excelsior have conceded 14 against 12.5 xG allowed, while Heerenveen have conceded 11 against 11.3. Neither side has built a clear territorial edge, which keeps the margins small.
Our view
The betting market implies about 57% for a Heerenveen win, 22% for a draw and 21% for an Excelsior win. Our model is close, at 56% for the hosts, 22% for a draw and 22% for the visitors. The gap is small, and it sits within the uncertainty of any estimate.
The model puts the chance of more than 2.5 goals at about 65%, with the market at 66%. That fits the 3.12 goals per game in this fixture's history. These are estimates, not predictions, and football is high-variance: Excelsior's stronger recent record is a reason to treat the home edge with caution.
Market and model
Betting market · consensus of 13 bookmakersGiovePicks model
- Home win57% market56% model1.76 Fair odds implied by the market
- Draw22% market22% model4.48 Fair odds implied by the market
- Away win21% market22% model4.80 Fair odds implied by the market
- Over 2.5 goals66% market65% model1.52 Fair odds implied by the market
- Under 2.5 goals34% market35% model2.93 Fair odds implied by the market
Estimates built from public data, not advice or a tip. We do not take bets or recommend any operator. Football is high-variance and no estimate is a guarantee. 18+ only.