Le Mans without two regular starters as 14th meets 15th on level points

The state of play

One place and no points separate these sides. Le Mans are 14th and Toulouse 15th, each on 6 points from six games with one win, three draws and two defeats. Both have a goal difference of -2.

Le Mans' sequence reads loss, win, draw, draw, loss. Toulouse's reads draw, win, draw, loss, draw. Neither has strung together consecutive wins, and Toulouse have not lost back-to-back games.

The hosts have the bigger team-news problem. Adil Bourabaa is out with an ankle injury, and Le Mans will also be without Erwan Colas, whose injury reason is unknown. Both have been regular starters, five starts each in their last eight squad appearances. Bourabaa has three goals in that spell and Colas one, so four of the club's recent goals are unavailable. Martin Rossignol is injured too, but he has started only once in that period. Toulouse are missing Abu Francis, a hamstring injury, though he has been a rotation option rather than a fixture.

Head to head

The 12 previous meetings are perfectly balanced: four wins for each side and four draws. They average 2.25 goals a game.

The most recent five all date from 2008 to 2010, and Toulouse took the better of them. They won four, including 3-1 at Le Mans in January 2010, and the other was a 1-1 draw. That is a long time ago, so it tells us little about the two squads now.

The numbers behind it

Toulouse have created more than they have allowed: 11.9 expected goals for against 8.8 against, a difference of 3.1. They have scored nine and conceded 11, so they have let in about two more than the chances suggest.

Le Mans sit on the wrong side of that comparison. Their 10.4 expected goals for trail the 12.7 they have faced, a difference of 2.3 against them. Their actual figures, 10 scored and 12 conceded, are close to what the chances suggest.

Over the last 10 games the picture is similarly tight. Le Mans have two wins, four draws and four defeats, with 14 goals for and 16 against, and average 1.0 points a match. Toulouse have two wins, three draws and five defeats, with 13 for and 19 against, and average 0.9.

Our view

The betting market implies about 32% for a Le Mans win, 27% for a draw and 42% for a Toulouse win. Our model leans a little further towards the visitors at 44%, with 31% for the hosts and 24% for a draw. The gaps are small, and Toulouse's stronger expected-goals record is the only supplied number that clearly points their way.

On goals, the model puts both teams scoring at 65%, against about 59% implied by the market. For more than 2.5 goals it gives 63% against 56%. Both are estimates, and football is high-variance enough that a game between two sides on equal points can go either way.