The state of play
Neither side reaches this semi-final at full strength. Estudiantes de La Plata are without four regulars: Marcos Rojo (knee), Eric Meza (muscle injury) and the suspended Leandro González Pírez and Tomás Palacios. Rojo and González Pírez each started all eight of the side's recent matches, so the spine of the defence is affected.
Flamengo miss three regulars. Ayrton Lucas is out with a thigh injury, Jorginho is suspended and Giorgian de Arrascaeta has a broken wrist. De Arrascaeta has two goals in his recent appearances, the most of any listed absentee on either side.
On form, Flamengo have won seven, drawn two and lost one of their last ten, a return of 2.3 points per match. Estudiantes have won four, drawn three and lost three, averaging 1.5.
On team news, OneFootball reports that Flamengo are still without Evertton Araújo and that their party has flagged Estudiantes' aggression. The same outlet says manager Alexander Medina has voiced support for Rojo, although he is listed as injured.
Head to head
The sides have met four times since September 2025. Flamengo have won two, Estudiantes one and one was drawn. Every meeting was close: Flamengo won 2-1 and then lost 1-0 in September 2025, before a 1-1 draw on 30 April and a 1-0 Flamengo win on 21 May.
Those four games averaged 1.75 goals, and none was settled by more than one.
The numbers behind it
Flamengo have scored 17 and conceded seven in their last ten, a goal difference of plus 10. Estudiantes have scored 13 and conceded nine, a difference of plus four.
The gap is clearest at the back. Flamengo concede 0.7 goals per match in that spell, Estudiantes 0.9. With so many defenders and midfielders missing on the home side, that margin could matter, though Flamengo lose their own holding midfielder and left-sided starter.
Both clubs have been sparing with goals against each other, which fits a tie where caution may count for as much as quality.
Our view
The betting market implies about 43% for a Flamengo win, 31% for a draw and 26% for an Estudiantes win. That is a clear lean towards the visitors, in line with their stronger recent results, but it still leaves more than half of the probability with the other two outcomes.
The market puts the chance of fewer than three goals at about 63% and of both sides scoring at about 44%, which matches the low-scoring pattern of the four previous meetings. These are estimates, and football is high-variance.
Market and model
Betting market · consensus of 13 bookmakers
- Home win26% market3.85 Fair odds implied by the market
- Draw31% market3.20 Fair odds implied by the market
- Away win43% market2.34 Fair odds implied by the market
- Over 2.5 goals38% market2.67 Fair odds implied by the market
- Under 2.5 goals63% market1.60 Fair odds implied by the market
Estimates built from public data, not advice or a tip. We do not take bets or recommend any operator. Football is high-variance and no estimate is a guarantee. 18+ only.