The state of play
Atlético Mineiro are the clear favourites for this Copa Sudamericana semi-final, but they arrive short of defenders and attackers who have featured heavily. Four players who have been regular starters are listed as injured.
Everson (foot) and Fred (hamstring) each started all eight of the club's recent matches in the line-up records, and Fred has one goal in that spell. Ruan (thigh) started six of eight, and Vitor Hugo (head injury) also started six and scored once. Mateo Cassierra, who started four of eight and scored once, is injured too. Between them, the regulars' absences take away only two recent goals, but they remove a large share of the usual starting spine.
Montevideo City Torque have no absences listed. The Uruguayan side are the underdogs, and they travel with a clean injury list.
The numbers behind it
The recent records are close. Atlético Mineiro have won six, drawn two and lost two of their last 10, scoring 17 and conceding 13, for an average of 2.0 points a match. Their sequence reads WDWDWWLLWW.
Montevideo City Torque have also won six of 10, with three defeats and one draw. They have scored 17 and conceded 12, a goal difference of plus five against the hosts' plus four, and average 1.9 points a match. Their sequence reads WLWWLDWWLW.
So the gap in results is a tenth of a point per match. The visitors have lost one more game, but they have also let in one goal fewer. The difference between the sides on recent form is far smaller than the market's view of this tie suggests, though a semi-final at home carries its own weight.
Our view
The betting market implies about 69% for an Atlético Mineiro win, 21% for a draw and 10% for a Montevideo City Torque victory. That is a strong lean towards the hosts.
The recent records alone do not account for all of it. Both sides have won six of their last 10 and scored the same number of goals, so the market appears to put heavy weight on home advantage. The four absences are a reason to treat that figure with some caution, though we cannot say how far they will change the balance.
These are estimates, not predictions. Football is high-variance, and a 10% chance for the visitors is far from negligible over a single match.
Market and model
Betting market · consensus of 12 bookmakers
- Home win69% market1.45 Fair odds implied by the market
- Draw21% market4.77 Fair odds implied by the market
- Away win10% market9.73 Fair odds implied by the market
Estimates built from public data, not advice or a tip. We do not take bets or recommend any operator. Football is high-variance and no estimate is a guarantee. 18+ only.