APR's leaky run meets Zamalek's 19 goals in Champions League qualifier

The state of play

The gap between these sides in recent weeks is wide. APR FC have won two of their last 10 matches, drawn two and lost six, an average of 0.8 points a game. Their sequence reads W-L-L-L-L-D-W-L-L-D, and it includes four defeats in a row.

Zamalek SC have won six of their last 10, drawn one and lost three, for 1.9 points a game. Their sequence of W-W-W-L-W-L-D-L-W-W contains no back-to-back defeats. This Qualification Round 2 tie in the CAF Champions League is played in Kigali.

Zamalek have injury concerns. Ahmed Fatouh, a regular who started six of Zamalek's last eight matches on record, is out with a muscle injury. He has not scored in that spell, so his absence costs them a defender's presence rather than goals. Adam Kaied and Mahmoud Bentayg, both rotation options, are also injured, and Amr Nasser and Mohamed El Sayed are listed as injured too. YSscores reports that Bentayg could be out for as long as four weeks. Goal.com reports that the Zamalek coach has undergone an operation. The New Times describes APR's Ouattara as in form. No APR absences are listed.

The numbers behind it

The goal columns point the same way as the results. APR have scored eight in 10 matches, 0.8 a game, and conceded 17, or 1.7 a game. That is a goal difference of minus nine.

Zamalek have scored 19 and conceded 11, a goal difference of plus eight. Their 1.9 goals scored per match is more than double APR's output. Their 1.1 conceded per match is well below APR's.

The two sides sit 1.1 points per match apart over their recent runs. Over two legs, a single away goal for either side could matter more than a season-long ranking would suggest, and no league positions are available to set against these figures.

Our view

The betting market implies about 60% for a Zamalek win, 25% for a draw and 15% for an APR win. Our model is slightly more cautious about the visitors at 58%, with the draw at 24% and an APR win at 18%.

The gap between the two is small, and both lean the same way. The recent goals and points record is the clearest support for Zamalek being the favoured side. These are estimates, not predictions, and football is high-variance: an APR win still carries a probability of nearly one in five on our model.