Horsens outscore Randers on attack, but their xG says the goals flatter them

The state of play

Horsens sit sixth with 12 points from ten games. Randers are eighth on 10, with a goal difference of -5 against Horsens' -1. Two points separate them, and the gap is mostly in attack: Horsens have scored 18 goals, Randers 11.

Randers have won three, drawn one and lost six of their last ten, an average of one point a match. Horsens have won four, drawn two and lost four, averaging 1.4. Randers' latest five league games brought three defeats and two wins.

The visitors have injury concerns. John Björkengren has started six of their last eight league games and Lucas Lissens five, and both are listed as injured. Neither has scored in that spell, so the loss is one of regular minutes rather than goals. Horsens have one listed absentee, Christian Vestergaard, who has not played lately.

Head to head

The sides have met 25 times, and eight of those games ended level. The last five meetings lean to Randers, who won three, including a 1-0 home win in August 2022. Horsens won the other two, the more recent a 5-1 at home in November 2022.

Those games averaged 2.04 goals across all 25 meetings, a little below the three-goal margin of several recent results.

The numbers behind it

Horsens' 18 goals came from 12.5 expected goals, so they have scored about 5.5 more than their chances suggest. At the other end they have conceded 19 from 16.3 expected against. That is a side whose finishing has run ahead of its chance creation.

Randers' figures sit closer to their output: 11 goals from 10 expected, and 16 conceded from 16 expected against. Their problem is volume. Ten expected goals in ten games is a low return, and they have conceded as often as they would be expected to.

Both sides have conceded 16 or more expected goals over ten games, which keeps goals in play.

Our view

The betting market implies about 34% for a Horsens win, 27% for a draw and 40% for a Randers win. Our model leans the other way, at 40% for Horsens, 25% for a draw and 35% for Randers.

The difference is a gap of six points on each side, and it is small enough to be uncertain. Horsens' better attacking record and 1.4 points a match over ten games support the model's tilt, though their finishing has outrun their expected goals. On goals, the model puts over 2.5 at 60% against about 53% from the market. Football is high-variance, and these are estimates, not predictions.